Estimating local chlamydia incidence and prevalence using surveillance data

Background: Understanding patterns of chlamydia prevalence is important for addressing inequalities and planning cost-effective control programs. Population-based surveys are costly; the best data for England come from the Natsal national surveys which are only available once per decade, and are nationally representative but not powered to compare prevalence in different localities. Prevalence estimates at finer spatial and temporal scales are required. Methods: We present a method for estimating local prevalence by modeling the infection, testing and treatment processes. Prior probability distributions for parameters describing natural history and treatment-seeking behavior are informed by the literature or calibrated using national prevalence estimates. By combining them with surveillance data on numbers of chlamydia tests and diagnoses, we obtain estimates of local screening rates, incidence and prevalence. We illustrate the method by application to data from England. Results: Our estimates of national prevalence by age group agree with the Natsal-3 survey. They could be improved by additional information on the number of diagnosed cases that were asymptomatic. There is substantial local-level variation in prevalence, with more infection in deprived areas. Incidence in each sex is strongly correlated with prevalence in the other. Importantly, we find that positivity (the proportion of tests which were positive) does not provide a reliable proxy for prevalence. Conclusion: This approach provides local chlamydia prevalence estimates from surveillance data, which could inform analyses to identify and understand local prevalence patterns and assess local programs. Estimates could be more accurate if surveillance systems recorded additional information, including on symptoms

Workload modeling using time windows and utilization in an air traffic control task

In this paper, we show how to assess human workload for continuous tasks and describe how operator performance is affected by variations in break-work intervals and by different utilizations. A study was conducted examining the effects of different break-work intervals and utilization as a factor in a mental workload model. We investigated the impact of operator performance on operational error while performing continuous event-driven air traffic control tasks with multiple aircraft. To this end we have developed a simple air traffic control (ATC) model aimed at distributing breaks to form different configurations with the same utilization. The presented approach extends prior concepts of workload and utilization, which are based on a simple average utilization, and considers the specific patterns of break-work intervals. Copyright 2011 by Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, Inc. All rights reserved

Understanding Relationships Between Chlamydial Infection, Symptoms, and Testing Behavior

BACKGROUND: Genital chlamydia is the most commonly diagnosed sexually transmitted infection worldwide and can have serious long-term sequelae. Numerous countries invest substantially in testing but evidence for programs’ effectiveness is inconclusive. It is important to understand the effects of testing programs in different groups of people. METHODS: We analyzed data on sexual behavior and chlamydia tests from 16-to 24-year olds in Britain’s third National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles, considering test setting, reason, and result. We conducted descriptive analysis accounting for survey design and nonresponse, and Bayesian analysis using a mathematical model. RESULTS: Most men testing due to symptoms tested in sexual health settings (63%; 95% confidence interval 43%–84%) but most women testing due to symptoms were tested by general practitioners (59%; 43%–76%). Within behavioral groups, positivity of chlamydia screens (tests not prompted by symptoms or partner notification) was similar to population prevalence. Screening rates were higher in women and in those reporting more partners: median (95% credible interval) rates per year in men were 0.30 (0.25–0.36) (0 new partners), 0.45 (0.37–0.54) (1 new partner), and 0.60 (0.50–0.73) (≥2 new partners). In women, they were 0.61 (0.53–0.69) (0 new partners), 0.89 (0.75–1.04) (1 new partner), and 1.2 (1.0–1.4) (≥2 new partners). CONCLUSIONS: Proportion of testing occurring in sexual health is not a proxy for proportion prompted by symptoms. Test positivity depends on a combination of force of infection and screening rate and does not simply reflect prevalence or behavioral risk. The analysis highlights the value of recording testing reason and behavioral characteristics to inform cost-effective control

Collaborative information sensemaking for multi-robot search and rescue

In this paper, we consider novel information sensemaking methods for search and rescue operations that combine principles of information fusion and collective intelligence in scalable solutions. We will elaborate on several approaches that originated in different areas of information integration, sensor data management, and multi-robot urban search and rescue missions

Meta-Analysis of Genome-Wide Linkage Studies in Celiac Disease.

OBJECTIVE: A meta-analysis of genome-wide linkage studies allows us to summarize the extensive information available from family-based studies, as the field moves into genome-wide association studies. METHODS: Here we apply the genome scan meta-analysis (GSMA) method, a rank-based, model-free approach, to combine results across eight independent genome-wide linkages performed on celiac disease (CD), including 554 families with over 1,500 affected individuals. We also investigate the agreement between signals we identified from this meta-analysis of linkage studies and those identified from genome-wide association analysis using a hypergeometric distribution. RESULTS: Not surprisingly, the most significant result was obtained in the HLA region. Outside the HLA region, suggestive evidence for linkage was obtained at the telomeric region of chromosome 10 (10q26.12-qter; p = 0.00366), and on chromosome 8 (8q22.2-q24.21; p = 0.00491). Testing signals of association and linkage within bins showed no significant evidence for co-localization of results. CONCLUSION: This meta-analysis allowed us to pool the results from available genome-wide linkage studies and to identify novel regions potentially harboring predisposing genetic variation contributing to CD. This study also shows that linkage and association studies may identify different types of disease-predisposing variants

Личные интересы участников российского уголовного процесса: Автореф. дис.... канд. юрид. наук: 12.00.09

Background Rigorous estimates for clearance rates of untreated chlamydia infections are important for understanding chlamydia epidemiology and designing control interventions, but were previously only available for women. Methods We used data from published studies of chlamydia-infected men who were retested at a later date without having received treatment. Our analysis allowed new infections to take one of 1, 2, or 3 courses, each clearing at a different rate. We determined which of these 3 models had the most empirical support. Results The best-fitting model had 2 courses of infection in men, as was previously found for women: “slow-clearing” and “fast-clearing.” Only 68% (57%–78%) (posterior median and 95% credible interval [CrI]) of incident infections in men were slow-clearing, vs 77% (69%–84%) in women. The slow clearance rate in men (based on 6 months’ follow-up) was 0.35 (.05–1.15) year-1 (posterior median and 95% CrI), corresponding to mean infection duration 2.84 (.87–18.79) years. This compares to 1.35 (1.13–1.63) years in women. Conclusions Our estimated clearance rate is slower than previously assumed. Fewer infections become established in men than women but once established, they clear more slowly. This study provides an improved description of chlamydia’s natural history to inform public health decision making. We describe how further data collection could reduce uncertainty in estimates

Online optimal and adaptive integral tracking control for varying discrete‐time systems using reinforcement learning

Conventional closed‐form solution to the optimal control problem using optimal control theory is only available under the assumption that there are known system dynamics/models described as differential equations. Without such models, reinforcement learning (RL) as a candidate technique has been successfully applied to iteratively solve the optimal control problem for unknown or varying systems. For the optimal tracking control problem, existing RL techniques in the literature assume either the use of a predetermined feedforward input for the tracking control, restrictive assumptions on the reference model dynamics, or discounted tracking costs. Furthermore, by using discounted tracking costs, zero steady‐state error cannot be guaranteed by the existing RL methods. This article therefore presents an optimal online RL tracking control framework for discrete‐time (DT) systems, which does not impose any restrictive assumptions of the existing methods and equally guarantees zero steady‐state tracking error. This is achieved by augmenting the original system dynamics with the integral of the error between the reference inputs and the tracked outputs for use in the online RL framework. It is further shown that the resulting value function for the DT linear quadratic tracker using the augmented formulation with integral control is also quadratic. This enables the development of Bellman equations, which use only the system measurements to solve the corresponding DT algebraic Riccati equation and obtain the optimal tracking control inputs online. Two RL strategies are thereafter proposed based on both the value function approximation and the Q‐learning along with bounds on excitation for the convergence of the parameter estimates. Simulation case studies show the effectiveness of the proposed approach

Is the sigma-1 receptor a potential pharmacological target for cardiac pathologies? A systematic review.

Sigma-1 receptors are ligand-regulated chaperone proteins, involved in several cellular mechanisms. The aim of this systematic review was to examine the effects that the sigma-1 receptor has on the cardiovascular system. The interaction targets and proposed mechanisms of action of sigma-1 receptors were explored, with the aim of determining if the sigma-1 receptor is a potential pharmacological target for cardiac pathologies. This systematic review was conducted according to the PRISMA guidelines and these were used to critically appraise eligible studies. Pubmed and Scopus were systematically searched for articles investigating sigma-1 receptors in the cardiovascular system. Papers identified by the search terms were then subject to analysis against pre-determined inclusion criteria. 23 manuscripts met the inclusion criteria and were included in this review. The experimental platforms, experimental techniques utilised and the results of the studies were summarised. The sigma-1 receptor is found to be implicated in cardioprotection, via various mechanisms including stimulating the Akt-eNOS pathway, and reduction of Ca2 + leakage into the cytosol via modulating certain calcium channels. Sigma-1 receptors are also found to modulate other cardiac ion channels including different subtypes of potassium and sodium channels and have been shown to modulate intracardiac neuron excitability. The sigma-1 receptor is a potential therapeutic target for treatment of cardiac pathologies, particularly cardiac hypertrophy. We therefore suggest investigating the cardioprotective mechanisms of sigma-1 receptor function, alongside proposed potential ligands that can stimulate these functions

tele-Substitution Reactions in the Synthesis of a Promising Class of 1,2,4-Triazolo[4,3-a]pyrazine-Based Antimalarials

We have discovered and studied a tele-substitution reaction in a biologically important heterocyclic ring system. Conditions that favor the tele-substitution pathway were identified: the use of increased equivalents of the nucleophile or decreased equivalents of base or the use of softer nucleophiles, less polar solvents, and larger halogens on the electrophile. Using results from X-ray crystallographic and isotope labeling experiments, a mechanism for this unusual transformation is proposed. We focused on this triazolopyrazine as it is the core structure of the in vivo active antiplasmodium compounds of Series 4 of the Open Source Malaria consortium

Radio-optical orientation of E/S0 galaxies: APM versus FIRST

We searched for extended radio sources in isolated E/S0 galaxies comparing the FIRST and APM catalogues for a single POSS plate. The 35 most promising candidates were visually inspected on the Digitized Sky Survey (DSS) and on FIRST images: we find several spirals and interacting galaxies and a few E/S0s with very weak, marginally extended radio cores. The only double-lobed (previously known) radio source is a dumbbell. For the rest of the objects, all hosting small and weak radio sources, the DSS is inadequate to determine morphological types. Thus a significant increase in sample size will be a major effort.Comment: 2 pages; no figures; to appear in Proc. "Observational Cosmology with the New Radio Surveys", eds. M. Bremer, N. Jackson & I. Perez-Fournon, Kluwer Acad. Pres